Food prices are being squeezed from two directions at once: what farmers pay to plant and what households may eventually pay to eat. Near Mablethorpe in Lincolnshire, Harriet White says the rising cost of red diesel is forcing her family to rethink both farm spending and home expenses, including nursery fees. Her warning is not just about one season’s budget. It points to a broader concern that higher input costs could reduce planting, tighten supply, and feed through to shops later, just as the wider conflict in the Middle East keeps unsettling fuel and fertiliser markets.
Why the pressure on food prices matters now
The immediate concern is timing. Red diesel, the cheaper fuel farmers use in off-road agricultural vehicles, cost 78p per litre before the war in the Middle East and was £1. 22 on Monday, after peaking at £1. 38 on 10 March, the price-tracking site Boiler Juice said. Even after falling since the ceasefire announced by the United States and Iran on 8 April, it remains 56% higher than before the war. That gap matters because farmers do not absorb extra costs in isolation; they decide whether to cut back, delay purchases, or plant less. White said the family is reconsidering future crops, warning that if less milling wheat is planted, there may be less bread later.
What lies beneath the diesel and fertiliser squeeze
The deeper issue is that the costs hitting farms are stacking up, not arriving one at a time. Anna Jackson, who farms near Scunthorpe, said fertiliser is becoming unmanageable and that a tonne bag has risen 14% from £336 to £390 since last year. She said the business is “starting to make lots of cuts, ” including reduced farm insurance, which she called “scary. ” In March, the National Farmers Union warned that food prices were likely to rise because farmers were unable to absorb all the extra costs they face. That warning is especially significant because the pressure is hitting both production and confidence: if growers lose faith in their margins, they may plant less, and that can create a delayed but lasting supply problem for food prices.
Expert warnings on food prices and supply chains
Analysts say the broader conflict has not yet fully reached store shelves, but the lag is part of the problem. Matin Qaim, executive director of the Center for Development Research at the University of Bonn, said food prices will “definitely rise in the coming months, ” adding that poorer people in Africa and Asia will be hit hardest because they already spend a high share of income on food. The Food and Agriculture Organization said a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global food catastrophe, and the World Food Programme said nearly 45 million more people could face acute food shortages if the conflict continues into the middle of the year and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel. Those are not immediate retail figures, but they show the scale of the risk sitting behind current farm decisions.
Regional and global ripple effects from food prices
The global picture is more restrained for now, which is why the tension is so sharp. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index showed global food prices rose 2. 4% last month compared with February, while cereal prices increased 1. 5%. Overall food prices are still about 11% below average prices in 2022, when markets were dealing with the shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19. At the same time, the FAO said cereal stocks are predicted to reach a record 951. 5 million tonnes by the end of the 2026 farming season, up about 9% from the previous year. That suggests ample supply on paper, yet supply on paper does not erase the pressure farmers feel now. If shipping disruption persists in the Strait of Hormuz, where about one-third of global seaborne fertiliser and one-quarter of seaborne oil normally move, the lagged effect on food prices could still intensify.
The next test for farms, families, and food prices
For now, the story is less about a shortage already visible and more about a chain of decisions that could narrow future supply. White’s fear is simple: fewer planted acres today may mean less food tomorrow, and the NFU’s warning suggests that many farms are already running close to the limit. Governments can soften some of the blow through fuel duty measures and tax relief, but those steps do not erase the wider cost environment. If fertiliser, diesel, and shipping remain strained, the question is not whether food prices are vulnerable, but how much of the burden will be shifted onto farmers, and how soon consumers will feel it.
