Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll prediction: UFC Vegas 115 odds, pick, and the key swing factors
alessandro costa returns to the prelims at UFC Vegas 115 on Saturday, where he meets Stewart Nicoll in a flyweight matchup that carries clear pressure for both men. The fight is set for the prelims of the UFC Vegas 115 card, with the event beginning at 5: 00 p. m. ET and airing on Paramount+. Costa enters as the betting favorite, while Nicoll is still searching for his first octagon victory.
Alessandro Costa enters with momentum questions
Costa comes in at 14-5 and is trying to rebound from a disappointing TKO loss to Alden Coria last September. Before that setback, he delivered a second-round knockout over Kevin Borjas, a result that showed the power and finishing ability that have defined much of his run.
The available numbers frame Costa as the sharper striker in this matchup. He averages more significant strikes per minute than Nicoll and lands them at a higher rate, while also carrying an 83 percent takedown defense mark. Those details matter because Nicoll’s path is built around wrestling, pressure, and top control.
On the betting board, Costa is listed as a heavy favorite at -425, with Nicoll at +330. The pricing reflects a matchup that many view through the lens of whether Costa can keep the fight standing long enough to make his speed and power count.
Stewart Nicoll needs a first UFC win
Nicoll arrives at 8-2 and is also coming off a loss, a unanimous decision defeat to Lucas Rocha last October. Before that, he suffered a quick submission loss to Jesus Aguilar, leaving him still winless in the octagon as this weekend approaches.
His route to victory is clear in the fight notes: close distance, force Costa backward, and use wrestling to control the pace. Nicoll is listed as one inch taller at 5-foot-5, but Costa has a two-inch edge in standing reach at 67 inches to 65.
The key question is whether Nicoll can turn repeated grappling attempts into sustained control. If he cannot, the matchup tilts toward Costa’s ability to keep the bout in a striking range where he has the advantage.
What the UFC Vegas 115 numbers suggest
The most direct read on this fight is simple: Costa is the more proven finisher, while Nicoll must make the bout messy and physical. Costa’s record includes 11 finishes, and five of his last six fights have ended by knockout. Nicoll, meanwhile, has seven wins by knockout or submission and has finished most of his wins early.
That is why one projection for the bout leans toward a fight that does not reach the distance. Another forecast favors Costa by unanimous decision, pointing to his speed, explosiveness, and ability to land the more damaging strikes if he keeps Nicoll from settling into a grappling rhythm.
What happens next on Saturday
For alessandro costa, the task is to stop the skid and turn the fight into a clean striking contest. For Nicoll, it is a chance to finally break through inside the octagon and convert wrestling pressure into a first UFC win.
When the prelims begin at 5: 00 p. m. ET, the outcome will likely hinge on whether Costa can defend takedowns and punish the entries, or whether Nicoll can make his pressure stick. Either way, alessandro costa remains the central name in a bout that now stands as one of the sharper betting and matchup reads on UFC Vegas 115.
