Nit Tournament semifinal: KenPom gives Auburn 73% edge over Illinois State at Hinkle Fieldhouse
nit tournament stakes are high Thursday night as Auburn and Illinois State meet in a semifinal at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. At 8: 30 p. m. CT Thursday, the Tigers step onto the floor needing one win to move into the NIT Championship game. Analytics lean Auburn’s way, but the matchup profiles as tight because the teams sit close in key efficiency measures.
KenPom projection puts Auburn in front, but calls it close
As of Thursday, KenPom gives Auburn a 73% chance of winning its NIT semifinal against Illinois State, with an implied score of 79–72. The model flags the game as competitive largely because Auburn and Illinois State are similar in offensive and defensive efficiency overall.
KenPom also anticipates the pressure rising when Auburn has the ball. That’s where Auburn’s No. 12 efficient offense is projected to collide with Illinois State’s No. 61 defense. On the other end, KenPom expects efficiency to dip when Illinois State is on offense, with Auburn’s No. 119 defense matched against Illinois State’s No. 147 offense.
Beyond the main efficiency splits, KenPom favors Auburn in two specific areas: offensive rebounds and free throws. Those edges, if they show up in the box score, could be the difference in a semifinal that the model frames as a narrow-margin fight.
Keys on the floor: perimeter defense, size, and road grind
Auburn’s defensive focus is clear in the numbers: the Tigers “must lock down the perimeter” against the Redbirds because 35. 6% of Illinois State’s points come from three-point territory. If Auburn limits clean looks from deep, it can push Illinois State toward the lower-efficiency outcomes KenPom expects when the Redbirds have the ball.
KenPom also notes Auburn has a height advantage over Illinois State, a factor that “could come in handy near the bucket. ” That size can matter in finishing plays inside, challenging shots, and creating second-chance opportunities—especially with Auburn already projected to hold an edge on the offensive glass.
The setting and travel context also frame this as a pressure test. The game is at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, and Auburn is trying to advance with what’s described as its first NIT win on the road against a “battle-tested” Illinois State group. The Redbirds, meanwhile, are set to play their third-straight game away from home, adding another layer to how both teams handle legs, pace, and late-game execution.
What’s next at the nit tournament: one win from the title game
Thursday’s semifinal winner moves one step closer to the tournament’s biggest prize, with Auburn entering the night needing a single victory to reach the championship game. The clearest questions heading into tip are whether Auburn can turn its projected advantages—rebounding, free throws, and size—into separation, and whether Illinois State can keep the game swinging by leaning on the three-point share that drives 35. 6% of its scoring. In a nit tournament semifinal that analytics grade as close, the next development is straightforward: the final minutes at Hinkle Fieldhouse will decide who gets to play for the title.
