kharg island, the export terminal through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow, has so far remained untouched even as US and Israeli strikes have struck other parts of the country. The terminal’s survival matters because removing that daily supply would reverberate through global markets; experts warn seizure or destruction could trigger sustained price spikes. So far the terminal remains off-limits amid debate in Washington and the region over the economic and strategic consequences.
Kharg Island: why the terminal has been spared and what it holds
kharg island is a five-mile-long coral island located 27 miles from Iran’s mainland where pipelines from Iran’s central and western oilfields terminate. The site was established by the US oil conglomerate Amoco and now features vast loading jetties on its eastern shore close to deep waters, making it one of the only parts of Iran’s coastline able to handle very large crude carriers.
Typically between 1. 3m and 1. 6m barrels of oil a day move through the terminal; the investment bank JP Morgan said Iran boosted flows to 3m barrels a day in mid-February in anticipation of a strike, and that about 18m barrels are stored on the island as a backup. Destroying or capturing the terminal would, analysts say, amount to taking the entirety of Iran’s daily crude exports offline and would affect global prices at a time when other supplies are already constrained.
Immediate reactions from officials and analysts
Neil Quilliam, with the Chatham House thinktank, warned of a severe market shock: “We may see the $120 a barrel price we saw on Monday (ET) heading to the $150 if Kharg were attacked. ” His comment captures expert fear that cutting that export line would send an already jittery market into a prolonged tailspin.
The US has struck 5, 000 targets in and around Iran while refraining from targeting the country’s oil infrastructure; oil prices remain nearly $20 per barrel higher as market fears have in effect closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. Israel’s air force struck two oil refineries and two depots on Saturday (ET), plunging parts of Tehran into darkness, but those attacks did not extend to the island terminal.
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has not ruled out attacking Iran with ground forces, a prospect that some officials have discussed as including seizure of the terminal. Michael Rubin, a senior Pentagon adviser on Iran and Iraq in the George W. Bush administration, said the idea was considered inside policy circles: “If they can’t sell their own oil, they can’t make payroll, ” he said, framing seizure as a way to economically pressure the regime.
Not all analysts back that approach. Lynette Nusbacher, a former British army intelligence officer, cautioned that destroying Kharg runs the risk of causing an “economy-shaping increase in oil price that would not drop rapidly, ” and noted the complex infrastructure could take years to repair.
What comes next and the stakes for markets
Any move against kharg island would be a strategic escalation with immediate market consequences: loss of the terminal’s flows would remove a critical quantity of global supply and likely prolong elevated prices. Before the latest offensive most of the crude from the island went to China, but because oil markets are interconnected a permanent loss in export supply would push prices worldwide higher while replacement barrels are sought.
Policymakers must weigh the short-term military gains against long-term economic fallout; analysts will be watching for any change in posture from Washington or Israel and for signs of damage to onshore pipelines and storage that feed the island. For now, kharg island remains a strategic red line whose fate will shape the next phase of the campaign and global energy markets.
