The weather channel conversation around this winter runs into a jarring contradiction: meteorological winter (December to February) ranked as the second-warmest on record across much of the contiguous U. S., even as cold and snowy conditions dominated the Northeast, with much of the region experiencing its coldest winter in a decade or more.
How did the U. S. land a near-record warm winter while the Northeast stayed cold?
Meteorological winter was unseasonably warm across much of the contiguous United States, ranking as the second-warmest winter on record since 1895—behind the 2023–24 season—based on a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). At the same time, the Northeast endured persistent blasts of bitter cold and snow, and several cities recorded their biggest snowfall in years.
The split was stark in the West: exceptional winter warmth there nearly pushed the nation to a new all-time high for the season. NOAA’s report identified nine states that finished with their warmest winter on record: Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. Dozens of cities in the West and Plains logged a top-five warmest winter, including Albuquerque, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Salt Lake City, each seeing their all-time warmest.
One detail underscoring the scale of warmth: Dallas, Texas, recorded 16 days with high temperatures of at least 80°F, the highest seasonal total on record.
What did the winter’s warmth change about water, drought, and snow in the West?
The season’s impacts were not confined to temperature. For much of the country, winter was described as not only exceptionally warm but exceptionally dry, ranking as the driest winter in 45 years across the Lower 48. NOAA stated that much of the western United States entered the season already grappling with drought, and persistent warmth fueled the worst snow drought in decades across parts of the Rockies as more precipitation fell as rain instead of snow.
NOAA also warned that drought already stresses water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems—and when winter fails to deliver significant mountain snow, those impacts can intensify. A persistent snow drought can trigger a cascade of hydrologic changes: low snowpack and early snowmelt can affect vegetation, reduce surface and subsurface water storage, and alter streamflow. NOAA linked those changes directly to water management and planning across the West.
The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) described the stakes of snowpack for water supply in direct terms: snowmelt supplies a large share of the region’s water used by communities, agriculture, and ecosystems. In some states, up to about 75 percent of water supplies can come from melting snow.
Regional dependence extends to critical river systems. The Bureau of Reclamation stated that the Colorado River provides water for more than 40 million people and fuels hydropower resources in seven states: California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.
Dryness was not limited to the West. Widespread, persistent drier-than-average conditions also impacted parts of the Heartland and Southeast, bringing drought expansion and intensification during the winter months. Multiple states—including Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Nebraska—experienced one of their driest winters on record.
The latest U. S. Drought Monitor report released on March 5 found that more than half of the contiguous U. S. is experiencing drought conditions—an increase of about 10% from the beginning of February. The National Integrated Drought Information System described Florida as enduring its worst drought in 25 years, with a heightened risk of wildfires this spring as conditions worsen across the state. U. S. Drought Monitor data showed all of Florida experiencing some level of drought, with more than 70% of the state facing an extreme drought level 3 of 4.
What is CAPE, and why does it matter when the forecast turns severe?
Amid these seasonal extremes, forecasters also lean on tools that quantify storm potential. One of the most common is CAPE—Convective Available Potential Energy—described as the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm. CAPE is expressed in joules per kilogram (J/kg) and can range anywhere from zero to more than 5, 000. Higher CAPE indicates a more unstable atmosphere that could support severe thunderstorm development, and higher CAPE can mean stronger thunderstorm updrafts that can support larger hail.
There are no hard and fast rules for a single “magic number” that will produce thunderstorms, because more goes into thunderstorm development than CAPE alone. Still, a general rule of thumb described by meteorologists is that values under 1, 000 indicate very weak instability; 1, 000 to 2, 500 indicates moderate instability; 2, 500 to 4, 000 indicates strong instability; and anything greater than 4, 000 is considered extreme instability. Location and time of year matter as well: in the Plains, a CAPE value under 1, 000 would be considered very weak instability in spring or fall, but can be more impressive in mid-winter.
Jennifer Gray, a weather and climate writer at weather. com, has covered major weather and climate stories for the last two decades. The concept she highlighted—CAPE as one tool in a larger toolbox—adds context to how severe-weather potential is framed when conditions shift quickly from season to season.
For audiences trying to reconcile the winter’s contradictions, the weather channel framing can be clearer when anchored to what agencies have formally documented: NOAA’s near-record national warmth, the West’s record-setting state and city warmth, the Lower 48’s driest winter in decades, and drought signals tracked in the U. S. Drought Monitor and described by the National Integrated Drought Information System.
