tucson weather is in the spotlight Monday as scattered showers and thunderstorms push into Arizona, with a heightened alert for storms that could turn severe. A First Alert Weather Day has been declared for Monday, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central and southern Arizona under a “Marginal Risk” for severe storms. In the Phoenix area, rain was already hitting parts of the city and communities east of the Valley around 5: 30 p. m. ET, with additional rain in the East Valley around 6 p. m. ET.
Storm threat timeline: evening rounds, then overnight impacts
Forecasters are watching for an active evening and overnight period as the better chance for more widespread storms arrives late. Most of the afternoon is expected to remain rain-free, but a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible after 4 or 5 PM. The stronger window for broader storm coverage is expected after 9 or 10 PM, with showers and storms continuing on and off overnight into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
One or two storms could become severe, bringing the risk of hail and strong wind gusts. Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport recorded wind speeds of more than 40 mph as storms moved in from the south at around 30 mph, with some communities seeing rain lasting about 10 minutes.
Tucson Weather and statewide severe risk: what officials are warning about
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a “Marginal Risk” for severe storms across much of central and southern Arizona, including the Valley. That category signals the potential for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts over 60 mph and small hail.
Rainfall totals through Tuesday morning are expected to vary. In the Valley, totals are projected to range from around a tenth to a quarter of an inch, while another forecast notes totals could range widely with some spots near 0. 05 inches and others closer to 0. 25 inches. Higher amounts remain possible with the heaviest downpours and over higher terrain.
Rain fades Tuesday, then a fast warmup takes hold
After the storm system moves out Tuesday afternoon, high pressure is expected to build back in—drying the forecast and quickly turning temperatures higher. A brief cooldown into the 70s is expected Tuesday, followed by increasing sunshine by Tuesday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Temperatures rebound sharply after that. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid-80s on Wednesday, then climb into the low to mid-90s on Thursday and hold in the mid-90s from Friday through the weekend. Forecast guidance also points to temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above normal across the Valley by the end of the week, raising the possibility of new daily heat records heading into the weekend.
Immediate reactions: gusty winds, fast-moving storms, and heat concerns
At Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, wind speeds topped 40 mph as storms pushed through, highlighting how quickly conditions can change during evening thunderstorm rounds. Forecasters also emphasized that storms moved in from the south at about 30 mph, a pace that can shorten rainfall duration even when wind impacts spike.
The Storm Prediction Center’s “Marginal Risk” alert underscores the severe-weather edge to this system, with damaging wind gusts over 60 mph and small hail possible in stronger storms.
What’s next: late-week records in view as the pattern flips
After lingering showers mainly over higher terrain east of the Valley Tuesday morning, attention turns rapidly to building heat later this week into the weekend. Some long-range model projections suggest highs could climb above 100 degrees by the middle of next week, though confidence remains low. The record for the earliest 100-degree day in Phoenix is March 26, set in 1988—an important marker as forecasters watch whether this warmup could challenge historical timing.
For residents tracking tucson weather, the immediate focus remains on the late-evening and overnight storm window, followed by a quick pivot to unusually hot conditions that could press toward record territory.
