Ricky Turcios enters UFC 326 with a three-round Bantamweight bout against newcomer Alberto Montes, a matchup previewed by Ryan Wohl as he breaks down his best bet for the fight.
What Does the Current State Say About Ricky Turcios?
Turcios has been with the top promotion since 2021 and carries a 2-3 record since joining. Activity has been limited: he fought twice in 2022, did not compete in 2023, and logged one fight each in 2024 and 2025. That leaves Turcios coming off a 14-month layoff. His last victory came against Kevin Natividad in November 2022. Physically, Turcios enters the bout with measurable advantages on paper: he is listed taller and with a longer reach (5’9″ and 71″) versus Montes at 5’7″ and 69″. The posted market lines make Montes the favorite at -185 while Turcios is +154; the total sits at 2. 5 rounds with the over at -160. The bout is priced -125 to go the distance and -105 to end early.
What If Alberto Montes’ Submission Trend Continues?
Alberto Montes arrives as a UFC newcomer after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in October 2024. Montes returns after an extended absence from competition, listed as 17 months away from the sport prior to this matchup. His lone career MMA loss came against Ira Lukowsky in December 2021, and he has since recorded three wins in a row, all by submission. Across his previous wins, seven came by decision or submission, reflecting a finishing pattern concentrated on grappling outcomes. Betting lines on specific outcomes make Montes available to win by decision or submission at -145.
Scenario mapping — three plausible outcomes based only on the available facts:
- Best case for Turcios: Turcios uses height and reach to control striking range, secures a decision victory after a measured three-round performance, snapping a losing streak and overcoming inactivity.
- Most likely: Montes leverages recent submission form and momentum from securing a contract to pressure Turcios; the fight goes to a later stage with a competitive showing, matching current market expectations that favor Montes.
- Most challenging for Turcios: Montes capitalizes on grappling strengths and prior finishing history to secure a submission, ending the bout before the final bell and extending Turcios’ run of losses.
What Should Fans and Bettors Anticipate About Ricky Turcios?
Ricky Turcios faces a compact set of variables: extended inactivity, a sub-. 500 record inside the promotion, size advantages on paper, and an opponent coming in with recent submission success after earning a contract. The posted lines and outcome prices reflect those facts, with Montes the betting favorite and markets pricing both distance and early-finishing paths. Observers should weigh Turcios’ physical dimensions and experience in the promotion against Montes’ recent finishing trend and newcomer momentum when forming expectations. Uncertainty remains high given both fighters’ recent activity patterns, and that should temper definitive predictions in the run-up to UFC 326.
Ricky Turcios
