San Antonio Weather: Cold front and upper-level low raise storm, hail, and flood concerns into Wednesday
San Antonio weather is entering a stormy stretch as a cold front and an upper-level low combine to boost showers and thunderstorms from late this morning into this afternoon. The setup marks the start of occasional rounds of rain and storms expected to persist out to Wednesday. The most immediate concerns are large hail, damaging wind gusts, and localized flooding as the front pushes through later today.
Storm chances rise late morning into afternoon as front moves through
A cold front is moving southeast out of north Texas, and the risk for showers and thunderstorms increases from late this morning into this afternoon. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were non-severe overnight, but the broader pattern turns more active as the front arrives later today.
Present trends suggest the front passes Central Texas between 12: 00 PM ET and 6: 00 PM ET. That window lines up with the period of highest concern for stronger storms before the severe potential fades once the front moves through.
San Antonio Weather threats: hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding
Across the area, the severe weather risk is rated 2 out of 5, with large hail and damaging wind gusts identified as the primary threats. Hail could reach up to 2 inches in diameter (about the size of a hen egg) and potentially larger.
Flooding is also on the radar. The Weather Prediction Center updated today’s flood threat, placing the majority of the area at level 1. Eastern sections of Lee, Fayette, and Milam Counties are at a level 2 flood threat.
Additional rounds of rain are expected to continue overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. A few showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening, with isolated light rain possible overnight.
Wet pattern holds through Wednesday as upper-level low lingers
Today begins a period of occasional showers and thunderstorms lasting out to Wednesday, driven in part by an upper-level low that is cut off from the main branch of the jet stream. The low is positioned over the eastern Pacific, east of the northern Baja Peninsula, and is expected to move very slowly over the next four-plus days while sending in Pacific moisture.
Showers and thunderstorms remain in the Sunday forecast because the upper low is still in place. Rain chances then lower in the Sunday night into Monday period.
Another uptick in storms possible Tuesday into Tuesday night
The upper-level low is expected to get a push out of the Baja region, reaching the El Paso area by Tuesday afternoon. As it interacts with another cold front, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Tuesday and especially Tuesday night, with another severe weather threat possible during that time.
A few lingering showers are in Wednesday’s forecast, followed by a few days described as dry and bright from Thursday to next Saturday.
What’s next: timing the next rounds and staying alert through the weekend
The next key checkpoints are the front’s passage between 12: 00 PM ET and 6: 00 PM ET today, additional rain overnight into early Sunday, and a second potential ramp-up Tuesday into Tuesday night. For residents tracking san antonio weather, the message is simple: expect on-and-off storms through midweek, with the strongest potential focused before the cold front clears and again as the next system arrives Tuesday night.
