Holidaymakers are watching a sharp jet fuel price increase ripple through airlines as carriers raise ticket prices, add surcharges, and cut some flights ahead of the summer travel period. The pressure is being felt most clearly on routes linked to Europe and long-haul services, while travel experts say most Scottish holiday plans should still go ahead. The concern comes as families, football fans, and summer travellers face a mix of higher costs and possible schedule changes.
Airlines move to protect schedules and margins
Several airlines have introduced emergency measures to offset higher fuel costs, including surcharges and higher checked bag fees. Lufthansa said on Tuesday it will cut 20, 000 European short-haul flights over the summer, and other airlines have raised ticket prices as the industry responds to the same pressure. The jet fuel price increase has pushed the benchmark European price to an all-time high of $1, 838 per tonne at the beginning of April, up from $831 before the war began.
Tim Jeans, a former commercial director for Ryanair, said the sector is facing “a triple whammy” as conflict in the Middle East lifts fuel costs and pushes up ticket prices. He said uncertainty about whether travel will be possible, combined with rising fares, is weakening demand and forcing airlines to decide whether flights will be profitable. Jeans said he does not see flights being cancelled because fuel is unavailable, but he expects some trimming of schedules and flight-time changes.
Passengers face higher fares, but not a full shutdown
Rory Boland, travel editor at consumer publication Which?, said overall cancellations should be a very small share of the millions of flights in and out of the UK. He said changes are likely to be focused on routes with several flights a day so passengers can be moved to an earlier or later service. Some travellers may still be placed on a next-day flight, which can disrupt holiday plans.
Jane Hawkes, an independent consumer commentator, said airlines and tour operators cannot usually raise a price after a ticket has been sold unless a specific clause in the terms and conditions allows it. She said future prices are more likely to rise, including charges for hold baggage and other extras. Boland added that package holidays can be adjusted by up to 8% after booking if there has been a significant rise in fuel costs, though most operators are promising not to add surcharges this year.
What travellers are being told now
The strongest fare rises have been seen on long-haul routes Asia, where longer rerouting around the Gulf is adding to fuel burn. Consultancy Teneo said flights from London to Melbourne in June are now costing 76% more than last year, while a flight to Hong Kong is up 72%. Airlines are not currently running short of fuel, but there have been warnings of possible shortages by the summer if the conflict continues.
In Scotland, travellers are already noticing the mood shift. Ian Western, from Oldmeldrum in Aberdeenshire, said at Aberdeen Airport that he was relaxed about his current trip to Benidorm with family and friends, but worried there could be trouble for his summer holiday. The jet fuel price increase is already shaping expectations, even where trips are still going ahead.
Short-term outlook remains tense
The broader context is a supply squeeze linked to the conflict in the Middle East, with much of the industry’s jet fuel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices have roughly doubled since March and the first half of April, but airlines hedge fuel costs in advance, which means the impact is not immediate across every route.
Travel experts say the summer is still expected to proceed largely as planned for most holidaymakers, though they warn that route trimming, higher fares, and occasional rebooking could become more common if the conflict lasts. The key issue now is how long the jet fuel price increase continues and whether airlines can keep schedules stable while keeping more expensive flights profitable.
