Travel anxiety is rising because flight cancellations jet fuel now sit at the center of a summer aviation squeeze that is still being framed as a prices problem rather than an immediate supply crisis. Several airlines have introduced surcharges, raised checked bag fees and begun trimming schedules, while travel experts say most holiday plans will still go ahead. The tension is clear: passengers fear disruption, yet airlines are trying to protect profitability while fuel costs continue to climb.
Why the fuel shock matters now
Jet fuel has doubled in price since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, after the conflict slowed production and transportation across the Middle East. At the beginning of April, the benchmark European jet fuel price reached an all-time high of $1, 838 per tonne, compared with $831 before the war began. That jump has pushed airlines into emergency measures, including higher ticket prices and extra charges.
The timing is especially sensitive. Thousands of Scotland football fans are expected to travel to the US in June, and the school holidays begin just weeks later. In that context, even a limited wave of cancellations or fare increases can feel bigger than the raw numbers suggest. The concern is not only about whether a flight takes off, but whether the total cost of travel remains manageable.
What airlines are changing
German airline Lufthansa has announced it will cut 20, 000 European short-haul flights over the summer. the move will save about 40, 000 metric tons of jet fuel and reduce unprofitable short-haul flights across its network. The first 120 daily flight cancellations were implemented on Tuesday and will continue until the end of May.
The airline said its medium-term route planning for the coming months is being revised and that summer optimisations will be published in late April or early May. It also said passengers will continue to have access to its global route network, particularly long-haul connections, but that this will be achieved more efficiently because of the increase in jet fuel prices.
Elsewhere, airlines have raised ticket prices, while some have increased checked bag fees or introduced surcharges. In the case of package holidays, tour operators can add up to 8% after booking based on a significant rise in fuel costs, though most operators are said to be promising not to do so this year. For travellers, that makes the pressure feel broader than a simple one-off price rise.
Expert view: disruption, but not a shutdown
Tim Jeans, a former commercial director for Ryanair, said the situation is a “triple whammy” for airlines because the Middle East conflict has driven up fuel costs, which in turn has pushed up ticket prices and reduced demand. He said uncertainty around whether travel would remain possible has forced airlines to decide whether flights will be profitable.
Jeans said he does not see a situation in which flights are cancelled because of the non-availability of fuel, though he expects some trimming of schedules and flight time changes. He added that for the most popular destinations in Spain, Portugal, Italy and France, things should remain largely normal, with only a modest adjustment upwards in fuel cost.
Rory Boland, travel editor at Which?, said overall cancellations should be a very small proportion of the millions of flights in and out of the UK. He said changes are likely to be targeted on routes with multiple daily flights so that passengers can be rebooked on an earlier or later service, although some may still be moved to a next-day flight.
Jane Hawkes, an independent consumer commentator, said airlines or tour operators can only raise prices after sale if a specific caveat is written into the terms and conditions. She said future prices, including baggage and extras, are more likely to rise than ticket prices already paid.
Regional and global ripple effects
The wider risk is less about immediate shortages than about prolonged strain. A large share of the industry’s jet fuel supplies comes from the Gulf region, and much of it passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed to shipping since the start of March. Airlines are not physically running short of fuel at present, but there have been warnings of potential shortages by the summer if the conflict continues.
Airlines also hedge prices, meaning they lock in deals in advance and do not face an instant doubling of costs. Even so, longer-term fuel bills are rising, and rerouted traffic avoiding the Gulf uses more fuel. That is one reason long-haul fares have risen sharply on some routes Asia, including flights from London to Melbourne and Hong Kong.
The European Commission has warned that flight cancellations and fare hikes will hit holidays if the jet fuel situation worsens. For now, the industry is trying to absorb shock after shock without breaking the summer schedule. The bigger question is whether route trimming remains a temporary adjustment or becomes the new baseline for an already stretched market as flight cancellations jet fuel keep shaping passenger choices.
