In the first three weeks of the season, mlb power rankings have already started to look different from preseason expectations. A little more than 10 percent of the schedule is complete, and the gap between projection and performance is wide enough to separate real momentum from early noise.
The Dodgers are outpacing even optimistic forecasts, the Twins are turning a strong run differential into a first-place start, and the Padres have recovered from a rough opening stretch. At the same time, the Cubs, Mets and Astros are sitting in last place, while the Giants have opened far below expectation. That mix makes this an early inflection point: not enough time to rewrite a season, but enough time to identify which starts deserve attention.
What if early performance is telling the truth?
The clearest signal is at the top. FanGraphs projected the Dodgers to win 98 games, but their current pace is 126 wins. That would exceed even the more bullish 105-win projection from PECOTA. The context matters: Mookie Betts has played only eight games, Blake Snell and Tommy Edman have not played at all, and Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz have not been very good. Even with those variables, the Dodgers have still separated from the field in a way that is hard to ignore.
The Padres are the other team most clearly beating preseason expectations. They were projected to finish almost exactly. 500, opened by losing four of their first five games, then surged after the calendar flipped to April. A sweep of the Rockies helped, but the larger story is an extended hot streak in which their only loss was to Paul Skenes. They remain behind the Dodgers in the NL West, yet they are the only team anywhere near that overachieving pace.
What happens when a hot start matches the underlying numbers?
The Twins offer a different kind of case. They are in first place with a strong run differential of +17, and they sold heavily at last year’s deadline, so their start feels less like a surprise and more like a team functioning in line with the evidence. Expected to finish with only 79 wins, they began 1-4, then won eight of nine, including a four-game sweep of the division rival Tigers. Their record matches their run differential, which suggests this may be a genuine opening stretch rather than a temporary spike.
The Reds fit into a similar conversation, even if the shape is different. They have kept a winning record despite a negative run differential, which makes them a team to watch rather than a team to trust fully. That distinction matters in early-season mlb power rankings: some clubs are outperforming projections, while others are merely surviving results that may not last.
What if the biggest surprises are also the least stable?
Not every surprise has the same foundation. The Cubs, Mets and Astros are in last place, but that alone does not tell the whole story. The first three weeks have defied expectations for better and for worse, and small samples can distort the picture. Still, with a little more than 10 percent of the season done, the standings are no longer just random background noise.
The Giants are the sharpest warning sign among the underperformers. Their start has been described as shockingly bad, while the Dodgers have exceeded algorithmic expectations. That contrast helps define the current shape of the season: a handful of clubs are already moving decisively away from their preseason ranges, and some of them are doing it fast enough to matter in the next few weeks, not just later in the summer.
Who wins, who loses, and what should readers watch next?
| Category | Teams | Current read |
|---|---|---|
| Clear overachievers | Dodgers, Padres | Performance is well above projection |
| Likely sustainable starts | Twins | Record and run differential line up |
| Useful caution cases | Reds | Winning despite a negative run differential |
| Early underachievers | Cubs, Mets, Astros, Giants | Expectations and results are far apart |
The biggest winners so far are the clubs that can justify their starts with either dominant pace or supporting indicators. The biggest losers are the teams whose records sit far below expectation, especially when the gap is accompanied by a poor overall start. For readers, the lesson is to separate strong records from strong foundations, and hot stretches from stable ones.
The forward-looking question is whether these early patterns harden into the season’s structure or fade as the sample grows. Some teams are already looking far better than projections, some are merely surprising, and some are beginning to look like they may be headed for a longer correction. For now, mlb power rankings should treat the Dodgers, Twins and Padres as the strongest early signals, while the Cubs, Mets, Astros and Giants remain the names most in need of a reset.
