The sharp drop in crude after the ceasefire news offered relief to markets, but gasoline is still carrying the weight of a supply shock that has not fully cleared. Ships with oil, liquid natural gas and fertiliser were effectively blocked from the Strait of Hormuz, and damage to Gulf facilities has already interrupted production. Even if calm holds, the path back to normal is slow, and that matters for households, airlines and food costs in the weeks ahead.
Why the price relief may not reach gasoline quickly
The key issue is timing. Analysts estimate it could take months to restart production and restore supplies after the disruption. That means the immediate fall in crude does not automatically translate into cheaper gasoline at the pump. The RAC says drivers should not expect a significant drop soon, even though crude is below its war-time peak. Simon Williams, the RAC’s head of policy, says there is still huge uncertainty and that the best near-term outcome would be for pump prices to stop rising in the coming days.
Williams adds that much depends on whether the ceasefire holds, whether oil shipments can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz, and how quickly production across the Gulf recovers. He says a sustained lower price over several weeks is needed before wholesale fuel costs can fall meaningfully. That is why gasoline remains vulnerable even after a market rally: the physical supply chain is still recovering.
What is holding back fuel and food recovery
The blockade-like conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected more than oil. The same chokepoint has also constrained liquid natural gas and fertiliser shipments, which raises the risk that fuel and food price pressure will linger together. That linkage matters because fertiliser disruption can filter into agriculture and then into grocery bills, extending the economic impact beyond drivers.
Rachel Winter of Killik & Co says it is difficult to predict how fast costs at the pump might fall, and she expects it could take at least a few weeks, if not a few months. Her warning reflects a broader problem: even if gasoline is available again, it still has to move through the supply chain, and some facilities have been damaged. Alan Gelder, senior vice-president of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, says the whole chain needs to return to normal, with ships reaching the right place and refineries resuming operation. In his view, that will take weeks, not days.
Expert warnings on markets, travel and living costs
Jet fuel is roughly double its pre-war level, and that is already feeding through to airline decisions. Willie Walsh, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, says even if traffic through the waterway resumes now, it will take months for supplies to reach the level they need to be at. He warns that passengers should expect higher ticket prices in the meantime. Some airlines have already increased fares, while others have cut routes.
That aviation pressure matters for gasoline too, because it shows the broader energy system is still strained. When fuel products remain disrupted, costs can move through transport networks in staggered ways rather than all at once. The result is a delayed but persistent burden on consumers.
Regional and global impact of the energy shock
The market reaction has been volatile. Brent crude rose by over 4% on Thursday to almost $99 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed to as high as $100. 29. A day earlier, Brent had tumbled 13. 29% to a four-week low of $94. 75. That swing underlines how fragile confidence remains around the ceasefire and how quickly gasoline expectations can shift.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, says the war will permanently scar the global economy even if a durable peace deal is reached. She says the “scarring effects” will mean slower global growth than first anticipated, and that even the most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade. For households, that macroeconomic warning reinforces a simple point: gasoline prices do not move in isolation. They are tied to shipping lanes, refining capacity, energy policy and consumer confidence all at once.
The immediate question is not whether crude can bounce after a ceasefire headline, but whether gasoline can truly come down before the next supply shock tests the market again.
