At 8: 30 a. m. ET on a Sunday, the numbers landed like a quiet jolt in Los Angeles politics: spencer pratt was not a punchline at the bottom of a ballot test, but third in a new poll of likely voters. In a city still arguing over recovery from the devastating Palisades fire, the survey’s topline wasn’t just who leads—it was how unsettled voters feel about the choices in front of them.
What does the new poll say about Spencer Pratt and the 2026 Los Angeles mayor’s race?
The poll, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times, surveyed 840 likely voters between March 9 and March 15 and offers an early snapshot of the contest less than three months before the June 2 primary. It places Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in front with 25% support. City Councilmember Nithya Raman follows with 17%, and conservative reality TV star spencer pratt comes in third at 14%. About a quarter of voters were undecided.
Beyond the top three, Rae Huang draws 8% and tech entrepreneur Adam Miller pulls 6%. The poll also underscores how little many voters feel they know about the contenders: slightly more than half of those surveyed said they didn’t know enough about Raman to have an opinion, and even more were unfamiliar with other candidates.
Why are Mayor Karen Bass’ unfavorables so high, even while she leads?
More than a year after the Palisades fire, the poll finds 56% of respondents view Bass unfavorably, while 31% view her favorably. Bass has faced heavy criticism for her handling of the fire and the recovery. She was on a diplomatic trip to Ghana when the fire ignited on Jan. 7, 2025, killing 12 people and destroying thousands of homes. The aftermath remains politically raw: Bass has outlined recovery strategies that critics say have faltered in execution, affecting confidence in the rebuilding process.
Attacks have come from multiple directions. The context around the race includes criticism from Pratt, from former candidate and billionaire developer Rick Caruso, and others over the Los Angeles Fire Department’s management of the fire, the pace of the recovery, and allegations that Bass ordered an after-action report on the fire to be watered down.
At the same time, Bass’ campaign argues her record is stronger than the mood suggests. Douglas Herman, a spokesperson for the Bass campaign, said: “It’s clear Angelenos are frustrated by decades of inaction on major issues. This campaign will show that it’s Karen Bass who changed the direction on these issues and that others running responded with reports while Karen Bass took action. ” The campaign has pointed to declining homelessness and crime as among the successes of Bass’ first term.
How did the field become so unfamiliar—and why that matters now
The mayoral race “solidified in early February, ” when Raman entered against Bass—an ally—hours before the filing deadline, a move described as shocking to the political establishment. By then, several better-known political figures had decided not to run, including Caruso and L. A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath. Former Los Angeles schools Superintendent Austin Beutner dropped out after the death of his 22-year-old daughter.
Those decisions, the poll narrative suggests, left many Angelenos looking at a roster they “hardly know. ” That unfamiliarity is visible in the opinion numbers: Raman is viewed favorably by 26% and unfavorably by 23%, while a large share said they didn’t have an opinion. For the rest of the field, the fog is thicker.
The dynamic creates an opening for a candidate whose name travels faster than policy details. In this environment, recognition can function like a substitute for introduction—at least early on—especially when a large bloc remains undecided.
Is this a warning sign for Bass—or simply an early snapshot?
One expert sees the poll as more than a routine early read. Dan Schnur, a politics professor at USC, UC Berkeley, and Pepperdine, called it “borderline catastrophic” for Bass because of what it implies about vulnerability against a field portrayed as weak. “That she’s having this much trouble against this field, against such a little-known field of opponents, bodes very, very poorly for her, ” Schnur said. He added: “The only thing saving her at this point is that the top tier of potential candidates who were considering running against her decided to stay out of this race. ”
Still, the poll is explicitly described as one of the first snapshots of a contest that has months to evolve. With about a quarter of voters undecided, the race remains fluid—not least because the fire recovery, public perceptions of competence, and the visibility of challengers can all change between now and Election Day.
What happens next before June 2—and what voters will be watching
The immediate timeline is defined by the June 2 primary. The broader meaning is defined by trust: whether voters believe Bass’ recovery strategies are working, and whether challengers can turn dissatisfaction into a credible governing argument. Bass continues to face criticism tied to the Palisades fire response and rebuilding progress, while her campaign highlights claimed progress on homelessness and crime.
In the background, the field’s unfamiliarity remains a central fact of the race. For many voters, the next months will be less about ideology than about learning who these candidates are, what they can realistically deliver, and how they would handle the kinds of emergencies that leave lasting scars on neighborhoods and reputations.
On that Sunday morning, the poll put an unusual headline into the bloodstream of the campaign: spencer pratt as a top-three contender. Whether that reflects a durable coalition or a momentary expression of frustration is not yet answered—only that, in Los Angeles right now, voter anxiety is concrete, and the competition to channel it has begun.
