Ryan O’hearn and the Preseason Waiver Paradox: Power Hype, Speed Pivots, and a Market That Isn’t Settled Yet

Ryan O’hearn is showing up in the conversation at the exact moment fantasy baseball’s preseason waiver market looks least reliable: while many drafts are still ongoing, and while player demand is being measured through shifting draft position rather than stable in-season pickups.

Why is the preseason waiver market distorted right now?

The preseason waiver cycle is being shaped by a structural contradiction: managers want actionable signals, but the most common “most-added” indicators can be skewed when leagues are still drafting. One preseason approach has leaned on the biggest average draft position (ADP) jumps in NFBC draft-and-hold leagues, using the start of Spring Training as the cutoff point. In plain terms, it is a demand snapshot built from drafts, not from waiver churn after Opening Day lineups settle.

That method surfaces a familiar tension for fantasy players: the list can include obvious stars who are “most added” simply because drafts are in progress, while deeper names climb because of Spring Training performance, role clarity, or positional movement. The same dynamic is visible across the player pool highlighted in preseason waiver discussions: some names are framed as stable contributors, some as speculative speed, and others as power plays made tempting by early results.

What do preseason waiver targets reveal about the new priorities?

Preseason waiver advice is implicitly reshaping what “value” means on the wire. At third base, one analysis argues that Draft Day is about adding power, but waivers call for a different strategy: low-risk options that can add speed and versatility, plus a few home runs when available. That pivot matters because it reframes what gets treated as a “must add” once managers face shallow free-agent pools at the position.

The specific targets discussed underscore how wide the profiles can be:

Kazuma Okamoto is presented as a solid source of power and batting average at third base. Meanwhile, Nasim Nuñez is framed as a steals-first gamble: playing time described as “a little suspect, ” but with the upside of 40+ stolen bases alongside a. 350 on-base percentage and around 10 home runs. Luis Rengifo and Jeff McNeil are described as steady, “boring” contributors, with positional and roster-stabilizing appeal rather than upside-driven urgency.

In the same mix are role-based bets and health-based discounts. TJ Rumfield is described as a power bat expected to be the Rockies’ starting first baseman, with a Spring Training line emphasizing a 2% strikeout rate and four home runs. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is described as possibly the best hitter among the featured names, but also as starting the season on the injured list, with a possible return in mid-April. These are not simply “best players available” calls; they are portfolio decisions built on role, timing, and category need.

Ryan O’hearn fits into this environment as a symbol of the preseason problem: managers are being pushed to act early, but the market signals are being generated from drafts still in motion and from spring samples that do not always map cleanly onto regular-season opportunity.

Which players are being positioned as league-winning upside—and what’s the risk?

Some preseason names are explicitly framed as upside swings, even when the downside is stated plainly. Jordan Lawlar is described as having been given an outfield spot “on a silver platter, ” with the caveat that he needs to hit “for once in the majors, ” yet still ranking high on possible upside. Coby Mayo is described as playing third base while Jordan Westburg is on the injured list, but with concerns about contact at the major-league level, including a 31% strikeout rate and a. 201 average.

Other profiles are presented as conditional opportunities. Joey Loperfido is described as likely the starting left fielder for the Astros, with a spring line of a. 914 OPS and three stolen bases. Garrett Mitchell is described as possibly the starting center fielder for the Brewers despite a. 413 OPS this spring, with attention directed to Brandon Lockridge, who posted a 1. 119 OPS with four home runs and three stolen bases.

At National League third base specifically, the waiver conversation emphasizes that home-run options are limited on the free-agent wire, so speed and versatility can be the more attainable add. The analysis highlights three names:

• House: described as having overall metrics that raise concern about long-term prospects, paired with MLB-level power and an ultra-aggressive approach, including swinging at over 50% of first pitches in 2025 and striking out 78 times against eight walks in 73 games. Spring Training performance is described as 41 at-bats with a. 439 average, three home runs, six doubles, and a 1. 259 OPS, with a high strikeout rate remaining part of the package. Selection rates are described as under 5% in NL-only leagues, framing the add as low-risk, medium-reward.
• Song: described as starting the 2026 season on the injured list after aggravating an oblique injury in spring training, yet also as a Korean free agent investment by the Padres with power and speed numbers “worthy of backing. ” Over the last two seasons in Korea, Song is described as averaging 22. 5 home runs and 23 stolen bases while batting over. 300. The role is described as potentially against right-handed pitching, with a path to full-time third base if Ty France “doesn’t show much” as Song heals.
• Shaw: described as lacking a starting spot behind Alex Bregman, but still positioned to play through dabbling at first base and appearances at second base and right field. The goal for manager Craig Counsell is described as getting Shaw close to 350–400 at-bats, more if injuries hit. Shaw’s rookie line is described as. 240 with 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 375 at-bats, with broader totals including minor leagues listed as 19 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 2025.

These profiles share a common thread: the waiver case is not built on certainty. It is built on plausible pathways to at-bats, category juice, and eligibility flexibility—precisely the areas where preseason perception can move faster than verified regular-season usage.

Ryan O’hearn, in that sense, is less a single-player story than a marker of a wider preseason reality: managers are being asked to trust signals generated in a period where drafts, roles, and health statuses are still settling, and where “most added” behavior can reflect drafting volume as much as conviction.

The public-facing takeaway is straightforward but easy to ignore: until drafts finish and playing-time assumptions harden, preseason waiver advice will continue to blend actionable role notes with inherently unstable demand metrics. That is the environment Ryan O’hearn now sits inside—and the environment fantasy managers must interrogate before treating early movement as certainty.