The earliest polling snapshot of the La mayoral contest carries a contradiction that campaigns usually fear: an incumbent in first place, yet struggling to be liked. A survey released Sunday shows Mayor Karen Bass leading a crowded field, while more than half of voters view her unfavorably. That tension matters because a sizable share of the electorate remains undecided, and several opponents are still largely unfamiliar to voters. With the June 2 primary approaching (ET), the race is shaping up less like a coronation and more like a test of whether a weak field can still punish a vulnerable front-runner.
Why this matters now in La politics
Two elements in the current contest make the moment unusually volatile. First, the field is crowded, and roughly a quarter of voters in one poll remain undecided—an opening large enough to reorder the top tier quickly once campaigning intensifies. Second, Bass enters the stretch with heavy criticism still attached to her handling of the Palisades fire, a defining event that has continued to shape voter perceptions more than a year after it began.
In the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll of 840 likely voters conducted March 9–15, Bass drew 25% support, with Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 17% and Spencer Pratt at 14%. Rae Huang registered 8% and Adam Miller 6%. Yet the topline lead sits alongside a stark favorability problem: 56% of those polled viewed Bass unfavorably, versus 31% favorably.
Separately, an Emerson College Polling survey conducted in partnership with Inside California Politics depicted a different balance of support—Bass at 20%—but it underscored the same overarching uncertainty by placing the undecided share at 51%. The second survey also framed Bass’s standing through job performance measures: 24% approve and 47% disapprove. The combined message across polls is not about who is first today; it is about how unsettled the electorate remains.
La’s polling paradox: leading with a weak mandate
Fact: Bass leads in the available polling snapshots. Analysis: her lead looks less like consolidation and more like fragmentation. When an incumbent sits on a relatively modest share of support while unfavorable views exceed favorable ones, the decisive factor becomes whether any alternative can become broadly “known enough” fast enough.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll captures that knowledge gap directly. Slightly more than half of respondents said they did not know enough about Raman to have an opinion. Bass, by contrast, is well-defined in the minds of voters—just not positively. That dynamic can lock a front-runner into a ceiling: she may remain first while the field is splintered, but she can still be overtaken if one challenger emerges as a credible vessel for dissatisfaction.
The field itself also matters. The race solidified in early February, when Raman entered against her ally Bass hours before the filing deadline. Several well-known politicians opted to stay out, including billionaire developer Rick Caruso and Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath. Former Los Angeles schools Superintendent Austin Beutner dropped out following the death of his 22-year-old daughter. Those decisions left a lineup many voters “hardly know, ” intensifying the importance of recognition and definition in the months ahead.
Bass, Raman, and the fire shadow over La’s next term
The Palisades fire remains central to the political story because it is tied to the most concrete, widely discussed critiques in the context provided. Bass faced sustained attacks over the Los Angeles Fire Department’s management of the fire, the pace of recovery, and allegations that she ordered an after-action report to be watered down. Bass was also on a diplomatic trip to Ghana when the fire ignited on Jan. 7, 2025, killing 12 people and destroying thousands of homes, and she appeared unsteady in her initial public appearances after the fire began.
Since then, Bass has outlined recovery strategies. Critics argue execution has faltered, affecting confidence in the rebuilding process. That criticism helps explain why an incumbent can lead early and still be politically exposed: negative views tied to a major crisis can persist even while opponents remain relatively undefined.
Bass’s campaign counters with a different governing narrative. Douglas Herman, a spokesperson for the Bass campaign, said: “It’s clear Angelenos are frustrated by decades of inaction on major issues. This campaign will show that it’s Karen Bass who changed the direction on these issues and that others running responded with reports while Karen Bass took action. ” The campaign has pointed to declining homelessness and crime as among the successes of her first term.
Raman’s numbers illustrate the opportunity—and the risk—for challengers. In the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, Raman’s favorability was 26% favorable and 23% unfavorable, with the remainder not expressing an opinion because they did not know enough about her. In other words, she appears less polarizing than Bass, but also less fully “introduced” to the electorate. In the Emerson College Polling survey, Raman’s tested support was lower than Pratt’s (9% versus 10%), yet the framing of the poll’s interpretation emphasized Raman as the most credible elected challenger positioned to consolidate voters looking for change.
Expert perspectives and what to watch next
Dan Schnur, politics professor at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine, described the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll as “borderline catastrophic” for Bass. His argument is structural: the candidate field is weak, and yet Bass is “having this much trouble” against opponents who are relatively little known. Schnur added that the absence of top-tier potential candidates is “the only thing saving her at this point, ” signaling that Bass’s best defense may be the opposition’s limitations rather than her own strength.
From here, the contest turns on measurable, near-term indicators rather than rhetoric. Three factors stand out within the available facts: whether the large undecided pool shrinks quickly, whether voter familiarity with Raman rises enough to convert neutral impressions into support, and whether Bass can reduce her unfavorable rating by shifting attention to claimed first-term successes rather than the fire and recovery disputes.
The clearest takeaway for La is that early leads are not the same as durable mandates. If the electorate is still searching for an alternative, the next phase will be less about who tops the first poll and more about who can become the acceptable second choice across a fragmented field—before voters conclude their first choice is simply “anyone else. ”
