tc is spotlighting the most probable first-round men’s NCAA tournament upsets as brackets settle and tipoff windows come into focus. The immediate attention is on matchups projected to be tight, with injury absences and late-season form shaping how “Giant Killer” scenarios look right now. The key message is simple: probability can guide picks, but it does not guarantee predictability, and every percentage point comes with context.
What the projections are flagging right now
The central framework highlighted is built on ’s BPI projections and a “Giant Killers” model that ranks first-round matchups by upset probability. The broader trend line is cautionary for upset hunters: only five double-digit seeds won in the first round of the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament, and the Elite Eight was tied for the chalkiest of all time, made up entirely of top-three seeds or better. The Final Four was also historically top-heavy, becoming just the second ever to feature four No. 1 seeds.
Even with that recent “chalk” trend, the analysis emphasizes why fans keep hunting for Cinderellas: the tournament’s appeal is tied to volatility. Still, the model’s numbers underline how difficult it is for lower seeds to break through. In this year’s setup, the model does not give any team seeded 11th or worse even a 40% chance of winning in the first round, and only one No. 12 seed is given even a 20% chance to advance.
Tc: The tightest upset window centers on North Carolina vs. VCU
One of the clearest upset signals comes with an upset chance listed at 39%, in a game slotted for 6: 50 p. m. ET on Thursday. The matchup is framed around North Carolina’s reduced ceiling without star freshman Caleb Wilson, who is out for the season with a broken thumb. The impact is described as visible in the eight games Wilson missed, with efficiency numbers dropping—especially on the offensive glass and in 2-point field goal percentage on both offense and defense.
That creates an opening for a VCU team entering the tournament having won 16 of its past 17 games. The Rams are described as balanced, versatile, and aggressive, with perimeter depth: all eight regular rotation players have hit at least 18 three-pointers this season. VCU also pressures defenses by getting to the free throw line at the 15th-highest rate in the country.
Other first-round upset candidates hinge on late form and injuries
Another highlighted upset spot is listed at 37% for a potential matchup set for 7: 25 p. m. ET on Thursday. It focuses on NC State, a team entering the tournament having lost seven of its past nine games, but with a reminder that just two years ago the program made a Final Four run as an 11-seed. The current challenge is defensive: over its past nine outings, NC State has allowed 87 points and nearly 11 three-pointers per game.
On the other side, BYU is described as less potent without Richie Saunders, who is out with an ACL injury, though AJ Dybantsa and Robert Wright III are labeled a formidable duo. The scenario is also contingent: if NC State beats Texas in Tuesday night’s First Four matchup (ET), the Wolfpack would need to lean into valuing the ball—holding the nation’s ninth-best turnover rate—and elite 3-point shooting, ranked 10th at 39%.
Quick context: why the “Cinderella” hunt looks different this time
The analysis notes that Cinderella “hasn’t shown her face much of late, ” and it explicitly warns that the probability of there being multiple upsets this March is low. It also flags that NCAA tournament betting lines are larger than ever, adding another layer of difficulty for underdogs trying to clear the margin.
What’s next as tipoffs approach
With two No. 6 vs. No. 11 games still to be determined by First Four results on Tuesday and Wednesday, the model is weighing all possible matchups rather than locking in a single bracket path. The next data points will come as those First Four outcomes finalize the field and as teams enter Thursday and Friday tip windows in Eastern Time. For bracket builders looking to separate from the crowd, tc is effectively narrowing the focus to the few spots where the numbers, injuries, and recent form align closely enough to make a first-round surprise feel realistically live.
