wsfa weather is tracking a fast-changing stretch for Alabama and the Gulf Coast: strong to severe storms are expected overnight into early Thursday morning, then a sharp cool-down could set the stage for frost by Friday and a possible freeze threat early next week.
What’s happening overnight, and where is the tornado risk higher?
A First Alert Weather Day remains in effect for the night as storms move in and across Alabama, with a focus on the far southern counties during the overnight hours where the tornado threat is described as higher. A Tornado Watch is in place until 2 a. m. for Sumter, Greene, Hale, and Perry counties.
Across Central Alabama, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning with the potential for damaging winds, hail, and a few isolated tornadoes. The primary concern is strong winds, while tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Conditions farther south along the Gulf Coast are also expected to deteriorate late Wednesday into early Thursday morning as a strong cold front moves through. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front and move across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Increasing instability and deep layer wind shear are expected to create an environment favorable for isolated strong to severe storms, with most activity occurring after midnight Wednesday night and before 7 a. m. Thursday.
How much rain is expected, and what flooding problems could still show up?
Heavy rain is expected along with the overnight storms. In parts of Alabama, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas that received 1 to 3 inches of rain earlier in the week. Most locations are expected to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, though some communities could see over 2 inches. Widespread flooding is not expected, but brief issues could develop in poor drainage areas.
For areas north of I-20, an impactful night is still expected with heavy rain and wind gusts over 30 mph as storms track east overnight.
wsfa weather continues to emphasize the practical reality of overnight hazards: residents are urged to have multiple reliable ways to receive weather alerts, particularly when storms and warnings may arrive while many people are asleep.
What changes after the storms: clearing skies, then frost and a possible freeze?
Storms are expected to move out early Thursday morning. Rain is expected to exit far eastern counties before noon, with clouds gradually clearing and sunshine returning during the afternoon. Behind the storms, cooler and windy conditions are expected, with highs in the middle to upper 50s. Thursday night temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 30s, bringing a frost threat by Friday morning. In North Alabama, lows by Friday morning are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost possible in colder spots.
Looking beyond Thursday and Friday, the weekend is expected to start dry, with pleasant conditions for most of it. Mornings will begin cool, and warm afternoons are expected to climb close to 80 degrees by Sunday. Another cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing another chance for heavier rain and a few storms, followed by another surge of colder air.
With spring blooms already underway, forecasters flag a potential freeze threat by St. Patrick’s Day morning. A First Alert Weather Day has been declared for a morning freeze, and if temperatures fall into the 20s early Tuesday, it could be detrimental to crops. There is also a low to medium chance of freezing temperatures next Tuesday morning, especially across northern portions of Central Alabama, and forecasters also note parts of North Alabama could see a late-season freeze Tuesday or Wednesday morning.
Along the Gulf Coast, after the line of storms moves through Thursday morning, conditions should gradually improve with cooler air filtering into the region later in the day. Highs Thursday and Friday are expected to be in the 60s, with the coldest night of the week expected Thursday into Friday morning and lows in the 40s.
wsfa weather will remain focused on the two-step risk: overnight severe storms and heavy rain first, then a cold push that could bring frost and a possible freeze early next week.
