tesla stock price moved sharply on Wednesday as Bank of America resumed coverage with a buy rating and fresh research aimed at quantifying the upside from robotaxis. The move comes after a rocky start to 2026 for the company, with shares down 13% year-to-date through Tuesday (ET) and investor debate intensifying around AI spending and expectations. The shift in attention is clear: as Tesla’s car sales have plummeted worldwide, investor focus has swung toward self-driving and robotaxis as the potential engine for future valuation (ET).
Robotaxi optimism drives the latest tesla stock price move
Bank of America’s Wednesday research helped push Tesla shares up more than 3% (ET), described as the stock’s biggest gain in a month. The firm not only resumed coverage, it also put a buy rating on the stock and introduced a new 12-month forward price target that implies 13% upside from current levels.
The core of the call is simple: robotaxi optimism is doing more of the heavy lifting in valuation discussions than the core car business. In Bank of America’s framework, robotaxis represent more than half of Tesla’s overall valuation—more than double the 21% contribution it assigns to Tesla’s core car business.
Five numbers now framing the robotaxi debate on Wall Street
Bank of America’s research lands amid a widening set of forecasts from major Wall Street analysts. Together, those estimates are increasingly distilled into a handful of headline numbers that investors are using to handicap Tesla’s robotaxi trajectory.
- Bank of America’s 12-month forward price target implies 13% upside (ET context: published Wednesday).
- Robotaxis as a share of Tesla valuation: more than half, versus 21% from the core car business in Bank of America’s breakdown.
- Potential global robotaxi market share: 50% is viewed as attainable by some bullish forecasters, with Ark Invest targeting 2030 and Wolfe Research pointing to 2035.
- Robotaxi fleet scale by 2035: Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco sees Tesla reaching a defined robotaxi count by 2035, up from 1, 000 expected on roads by the end of 2026 (Percoco holds a neutral rating).
- 2026 capital expenditures: Tesla has said it expects to spend more than double the $9 billion spent the prior year, a level that has become more sensitive with investors punishing big AI spending.
Immediate reactions: analysts weigh capex and innovation tradeoffs
On the spending outlook, the pushback risk is explicit: investors have started punishing companies for big AI spending (ET). Still, not all analysts see that as a red flag for Tesla’s plans.
RBC Capital Markets maintains a buy rating and a $500 price target, which is more bullish than Bank of America’s target. RBC’s view is that Tesla’s stated 2026 capex level is the right amount to facilitate necessary innovation.
At the same time, the tone around the stock has been choppy. Tesla shares more than doubled between April and December of last year (ET timeframe: the prior year), but the early-2026 slide has sharpened scrutiny, especially as skepticism around AI has mounted and markets have rotated out of market-leading tech names.
Quick context and what’s next for tesla stock price
Over the past few quarters, Tesla has increasingly been framed as an AI company, and the investor narrative has pivoted from vehicle sales momentum to autonomous driving and robotaxis. That narrative shift is happening as global car sales have weakened and Tesla has lost the crown of the world’s largest EV seller.
Next, investors will be watching for how the competing valuation frameworks hold up—particularly the weight assigned to robotaxis versus the core car business—and whether the market continues to reward or punish big AI-related spending plans in 2026 (ET). With Bank of America back in coverage and RBC maintaining an even more bullish target, the tug-of-war over robotaxi assumptions remains central to where tesla stock price goes from here.
