juan soto is again at the center of the New York Mets’ biggest question as of 9: 00 AM ET: can he turn elite production into a real National League MVP run. The Mets’ urgency comes with the season approaching after a 2025 collapse that ended outside the playoffs, despite the team entering that year with major hype. The why is clear in projections and recent public comments: a monster season is on the table, but the path to an MVP case runs straight through defense, roster context, and the Ohtani-sized standard in the NL.
Most urgent: the MVP bar is set, and Juan Soto’s checklist is already public
In the National League, Shohei Ohtani’s presence raises the standard, and the idea of an MVP chase is being framed as a high bar even for a player described as having the pedigree to challenge him. Juan Soto has been a top-five MVP candidate four times in his eight-year career, yet has not won the award, a gap that shapes the current conversation around what still needs to change for an outright MVP breakthrough.
One key area is defense. Juan Soto has not been characterized as a strong defender, with the last above-average Defensive Runs Saved season listed as 2021 and a total of -14 across the four seasons since. Another metric cited, Outs Above Average, is tied to range, and his -12 OAA in 2025 placed him in the 1st percentile of qualified players. The implication inside the Mets’ own roster calculus is blunt: continued poor fielding could force a shift toward designated hitter sooner than he would prefer, and reaching league-average defense would materially lift his MVP candidacy.
Projections and pressure: juan soto forecast points to MVP-caliber output
FanGraphs projections for the upcoming season place Soto in the early NL MVP conversation, and the forecasted line is substantial:.272/. 411/. 528 with 38 home runs, 102 RBI, and 23 stolen bases, alongside an OPS projected well over. 900 and a projected WAR of 6. 1. The Mets, coming off a winter of roster changes after their second-half collapse in 2025, are leaning into the expectation that their superstar can anchor a reset.
That projection-driven optimism exists beside a note of urgency about the start of the season. Despite finishing 2025 with “fantastic numbers, ” the framing here is that Soto took time to get going, and a better early runway is on the wish list. The context provided also points to meaningful games in the World Baseball Classic as a possible factor that could have him sharper for the season ahead, while a second year with the organization could add comfort and stability.
Immediate reactions: Soto’s challenge to Ohtani and the post-Alonso lineup reality
On the record, Soto has voiced a direct competitive stance toward Ohtani in comments attributed to MLB. com: “I’m going to be there every year, too, ” Soto said, referencing both players being under guaranteed contracts through 2033. “So he better keep doing what he’s doing, because I’m coming. He’s really good. He’s really good. I’ve just got to beat him. Definitely, it’s not going to be easy, but I’ve got to find a way to beat him. ”
Soto also laid out a self-improvement framework, including baserunning and outfield work, after a 2025 season in which he stole a career-high 38 bases, calling it intentional: “I feel like everybody tries to do better than what they did before, ” Soto said. “I would definitely love to be better around the bases and better around the outfield. Even hitting, I try to keep my hitting increased… I just want to keep doing the same thing. I try to be better year after year. ”
Roster context is part of the immediate storyline. Soto acknowledged a challenge without Pete Alonso in the lineup, in remarks attributed to MLB Network: “You know, Pete was great for the team… But you’ve got to move on… Everybody in the room has a voice… And just have fun… Every day you bring a smile, you bring the good energy. Everything is going to go in the right way. ” The stated 2026 protection behind him is Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, with Bichette noted as driving in 94 runs last season—context offered as a reason pitchers may be less willing to freely pitch around Soto in key spots.
Quick context
The Mets entered 2025 with major hype after signing Soto away from the New York Yankees, but the season ended with the team missing the playoffs after a second-half collapse. With the next season approaching, projections and public comments have turned the MVP discussion into a central measuring stick.
What’s next
From here, the next developments will be tracked through early-season performance and whether the defensive emphasis translates into real improvement, because the MVP conversation being attached to the Mets’ turnaround is not abstract. For juan soto, the route being laid out is straightforward: sustain the projected impact at the plate, keep the baserunning gains, and pull the defense closer to league-average while the Mets’ retooled roster tries to re-enter the top tier heading into 2026.
