manny machado is sharing the early-season spotlight with a significant internal storyline in San Diego: Joe Musgrove has taken a visible step toward returning from Tommy John surgery, an inflection point for a Padres rotation described as uncertain in 2026.
On Wednesday morning in Peoria, Arizona, Padres manager Craig Stammen framed the stakes and the limits. Stammen called Musgrove capable of being “the best pitcher in the National League, ” then emphasized there is no guarantee of a full return to peak form. Hours later, Musgrove appeared in a televised exhibition for the first time since Oct. 2, 2024, when he pitched in the National League Wild Card Series with a damaged ulnar collateral ligament.
What happens when Manny Machado’s Padres watch Musgrove test the next stage of his comeback?
Musgrove’s outing was designed as a checkpoint more than a verdict. He threw 60 pitches over two-plus innings in an exhibition against Great Britain’s World Baseball Classic team. In the 2-2 tie, he allowed one run on five hits and a walk, while throwing 36 strikes.
Musgrove described the appearance as “another step” and “a good step forward, ” focusing on practical takeaways: pitch count, three innings of work as a target, and getting reacquainted with the pitch clock. He said he felt a bit rushed by the pitch clock and noted that command was not where he wanted it to be, even as he liked “the shapes” of his pitches.
Even in a controlled spring setting, Musgrove emphasized patience as part of the process. He said he has spoken with other pitchers who did not feel normal until around the two-year mark after surgery. Rather than placing himself into a timeline category, he described a day-to-day approach: taking the ball every fifth day, seeing how he recovers, and adjusting as he goes.
What if the current state of play is less about results and more about repeatable indicators?
The Padres are treating Musgrove’s return as both encouraging and inherently uncertain. The context is clear inside the clubhouse: Musgrove is entering his age-33 season and is 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Stammen highlighted Musgrove’s work ethic and attention to detail as reasons for optimism, while also acknowledging that a best-in-league outcome is not a “100 percent chance. ”
From Musgrove’s perspective, the near-term objective is availability and consistent competitiveness rather than volume. He said he wants to stay healthy and make his starts, while not expecting to reach 180 or 200 innings. The aim, in his words, is to “take the ball consistently throughout the year and be productive, ” and to get the “competitive juices” back.
Some measurable checkpoints from Wednesday pointed in mixed but usable directions:
| Indicator | What happened Wednesday | Why it matters next |
|---|---|---|
| Workload | 60 pitches over two-plus innings | Signals a build-up path that can be extended in later appearances |
| Strike rate | 36 strikes (60%) | Shows baseline ability to work in the zone while command refines |
| Velocity | 94. 2 mph average four-seam fastball | Comparable to his established range as a starter since becoming full-time in 2018 |
| Breaking ball execution | Two strikes on 12 curveballs | Highlights a command feel area that can lag during early return phases |
| Pitch characteristics | Spin and movement in line with previous seasons | Suggests raw stuff traits are present even if location and timing lag |
Musgrove also said his sequencing was not representative of what would be expected in the regular season, describing it as a chance to see how certain pitches played. That framing underscores why the Padres are likely to treat early spring results cautiously.
What happens when a fragile rotation meets the reality that Tommy John outcomes are mixed?
The Padres’ dependence on Musgrove’s return is sharpened by the broader landscape described around the team. San Diego’s rotation is characterized as uncertain in 2026. Alongside Musgrove, Michael King is noted as having a “checkered injury history. ” Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler, identified as a two-time Tommy John patient, are among several low-cost signees competing for roles at the back of the rotation. In that picture, Musgrove is described as the likely No. 3 starter and a potential stabilizer for the entire unit.
At the same time, the larger track record of Tommy John recoveries offers no single script. A group of notable starters who underwent the procedure between 2023 and 2024 illustrates the range of possibilities. Jacob deGrom, Matthew Boyd, and Kris Bubic were All-Stars in 2025, while Sandy Alcantara, Antonio Senzatela, and Germán Márquez endured career-worst results. Others remain in pursuit of their previous form.
Musgrove’s own comments align with that uncertainty. He described building back as a process of recovery and adjustment, rather than expecting instant normal. He also pointed to a new urgency in spring training after months of rehabilitation at a more casual pace, describing the rhythm of game-work and bullpen-work as faster than what he had been doing.
For a club trying to find reliable innings, the takeaway is not that Musgrove must immediately be dominant, but that each step toward being able to take the ball every fifth day reshapes the rotation math around him.
For readers tracking where the Padres go next, the signal is this: the team is tying significant ambitions to Musgrove’s surgically repaired arm and daily preparation, while also acknowledging that even modern medical advances do not erase the need for patience. In that sense, manny machado sits at the center of a spring defined not only by lineup expectations, but by whether Joe Musgrove can steadily turn “checking boxes” into dependable starts.
