avi lewis is leading early support among past NDP voters as voting opens in the federal leadership race on March 25, 2026 (ET), with a new leader set to be announced at a convention in Winnipeg on Sunday (ET). Five candidates are seeking the job at a moment the party itself is fighting to reintroduce its leadership field to would-be supporters. The immediate challenge, researchers warn, is basic recognition—many past NDP voters say they do not know any of the candidates.
Avi Lewis tops early support in a low-recognition race
New survey data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute, drawn from views of more than 1, 100 Canadians who voted for the NDP at least once in any of the past four federal elections, captures the scale of the awareness problem facing the party as balloting begins. The institute found 44% of these past NDP voters say they don’t know any of the leadership candidates, while another one-in-five say they are uncertain who would make the best leader.
Within that same group of past supporters, avi lewis is identified as the fundraising frontrunner and leads with 13% support. Heather McPherson follows at 9% among that cohort. The numbers underline how fragmented the field looks at the outset, with uncertainty dominating the electorate the party is trying to win back.
Party relevance questioned as caucus shrinks in Ottawa
The Angus Reid Institute data also points to a deeper political problem: confidence in the party’s standing. Fully one-quarter of past NDP voters in the survey say the party is irrelevant (24%). More say its best days are in the past (40%).
That erosion is unfolding alongside recent setbacks in Parliament. The party lost official status last year and returned seven MPs to Ottawa. After a floor-crossing defection last month, the current caucus stands at six—raising the stakes for the next leader’s ability to rebuild visibility and credibility with voters who have drifted away.
Researchers flag a “roots” question: working-class identity
The survey frames the leadership choice as a test of whether the party can regain a clear identity as it seeks to establish relevance. The Angus Reid Institute notes that whoever wins will likely focus on returning to the party’s roots as a federal avatar for the working class—an identity built over decades through cooperation with organized labour.
Yet even that legacy is not universally accepted among the party’s past supporters. One-quarter of past New Democrats surveyed disagree that the NDP is the party of the working class (23%). The institute adds that those who previously supported the NDP but voted Conservative in 2025 are most likely to feel this way, signaling a specific challenge in winning back former supporters who have moved rightward.
Quick context: past peaks and a present reset
The Angus Reid Institute situates today’s uncertainty against earlier high points: the party became the official opposition in 2011 under Jack Layton, then approached government-forming levels of vote intention during the 2015 campaign under Thomas Mulcair. The institute’s review describes the subsequent period as a faltering under Jagmeet Singh, culminating in the loss of official status last year.
What’s next: Winnipeg decision and the first test
With voting now open as of March 25, 2026 (ET) and the leadership result expected at the Winnipeg convention on Sunday (ET), the next phase will start immediately after the winner is named. The institute’s findings suggest the first task will be straightforward but urgent: introduce the new leader—and the leadership field itself—to many would-be voters, at a time when avi lewis holds an early edge in support but much of the electorate remains unsure who any candidate is.
