Gasoline is rising fast heading into Spring Break, with AAA saying the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped nearly 35 cents since last week as more drivers hit the road and crude prices repeatedly crossed the $100-a-barrel mark in recent days.
Why are gasoline prices moving up as Spring Break begins?
AAA framed the current run-up as seasonal and demand-driven: Spring Break season is here, weather is warming, and gasoline demand typically increases this time of year as more drivers travel. At the same time, AAA noted crude oil prices play a major role in what drivers pay at the pump, and those prices have surpassed the $100/barrel mark multiple times in recent days.
Market data AAA highlighted also point to near-term volatility. At the close of Wednesday’s formal trading session, WTI rose $3. 80 to settle at $87. 25 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported crude oil inventories increased by 3. 8 million barrels from the previous week; at 443. 1 million barrels, U. S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.
What do the latest EIA figures show on demand, supply, and production?
New EIA data cited by AAA show demand rose while supply fell. Gasoline demand increased last week from 8. 29 million b/d to 9. 24 million. Over the same period, total domestic gasoline supply decreased from 253. 1 million barrels to 249. 5 million. AAA also said gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9. 9 million barrels per day.
For drivers, the immediate reality is felt at the pump, and AAA said current prices are similar to the spring of 2024. Regional disparities remain stark, with AAA listing the nation’s top 10 most expensive gasoline markets as California ($5. 36), Hawaii ($4. 76), Washington ($4. 74), Nevada ($4. 39), Oregon ($4. 30), Arizona ($4. 06), Alaska ($3. 96), Florida ($3. 71), Pennsylvania ($3. 66), and Illinois ($3. 66). The least expensive markets include Kansas ($3. 04), Oklahoma ($3. 05), North Dakota ($3. 09), Arkansas ($3. 11), Missouri ($3. 12), Mississippi ($3. 16), South Dakota ($3. 18), Kentucky ($3. 19), Wisconsin ($3. 21), and Iowa ($3. 22).
What officials are doing, and how today compares with inflation-adjusted history
AAA said the U. S. announced it will release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves over four months, part of a broader International Energy Agency effort to release a total of 400 million barrels of oil, described by AAA as the largest emergency release in the agency’s history. AAA presented the move as aimed at helping offset rising prices.
Separate inflation-adjusted analysis described a longer pattern of peaks and valleys. One recent snapshot put Tuesday’s average at $3. 54 per gallon, up more than 70 cents from $2. 81 in January 2026 used as a baseline for comparison. That analysis also stated that, when adjusted for inflation, gasoline is less expensive now than throughout much of the 2000s and 2010s, even while noting that in less than two months the inflation-adjusted increase in the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline exceeded what occurred in many years across the past 30 years.
The same historical review tied major spikes to events that constrained supply or shifted demand. It described Hurricane Katrina as a key price shock that shut down production at Gulf Coast refineries, reducing capacity to process crude into gasoline, with gas reaching $2. 90 at the time, or $4. 77 in 2026 terms. It also described July 2008 prices topping an inflation-adjusted $6 per gallon while oil reached $147 per barrel, followed by a sharp decline later in 2008 as the financial crisis hit. More recently in that timeline, it cited gasoline reaching $5. 46 per gallon in June 2022 when adjusted for inflation amid strained global markets and heated travel demand.
On consumer behavior, Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, said in an interview that drivers typically only start driving less once the cost of filling their tank consumes a significantly higher percentage of their monthly income, estimating it is “about 2. 2%” now. De Haan said that when the share rises to 3% Americans start taking action, and at 4% they begin biking and taking mass transit. He also warned the current price spikes can have a significant impact as increases add up across the economy, and pointed to a February jobs report showing the U. S. lost 92, 000 jobs last month.
For now, the latest official indicators show the tension driving this moment: demand is rising into Spring Break, supply has dipped week over week, production has increased, and policymakers are moving to release oil from strategic reserves while the price drivers linked to crude markets remain in focus.
