Three years ago, while populating a SIPP and weighing income against risk, an investor was moments away from buying aviva shares — torn between two FTSE 100 financials that then traded on single-digit P/Es. That near-miss frames a present-day dilemma: after a strong run in markets, is aviva still the better choice?
Aviva’s run, yields and valuation
The market move since that decision has been stark. The FTSE 100 climbed from about 7, 878 to roughly 10, 780, up 36% over three years, and some high-yield financial names have delivered hefty total returns when dividends are included. Aviva was up almost 50% over three years and about 30% in the last 12 months, figures that reflect both capital gains and dividend income.
Valuation shifted as well. Aviva’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio rose to 26. 7 and its yield trimmed to 5. 4% after the rebound. On a forward basis, Aviva trades on a projected P/E of 11. 9 for 2026 with a forward yield near 6. 36%. Those forward metrics sit alongside market indicators from three years ago: consumer price inflation was 10. 3% in February 2023, close to an 11. 1% peak the previous October, and base rates have since fallen from 5. 25% to 3. 75%.
Why the choice mattered to one investor
The investor’s account lays out the human side of that calculation. “I was moments away from buying Aviva shares, ” the investor wrote, describing a decision between aviva and a rival that then yielded even more. At the time, Aviva yielded 7. 5%, while the rival yielded as much as 10%, offering tempting income when risk-free yields on savings and bonds topped 5%.
Faced with that trade-off, the investor bought the rival, attracted by income. In hindsight the decision produced regret: Aviva’s stronger capital appreciation would have complemented the dividend stream. Yet the investor also notes the long game: holding high-yield financials for the next decade remains the plan, and patience is part of the personal investing thesis.
What the numbers say about buying now
The raw comparisons in the investor’s notes remain central to any fresh purchase decision. The rival’s trailing P/E stood at 92, a reflection of several years of falling earnings per share; its trailing yield was 7. 9%. On a forward basis, the rival’s P/E was projected at 11. 3 for 2026, with a forward yield around 8. 35%. Those forward figures narrow the valuation gap and present both names as materially cheaper than Aviva’s current trailing multiple suggests.
Market context matters: base-rate declines and a rising FTSE 100 have driven returns for dividend-paying financials, but earnings trajectories, dividend sustainability and business streamlining also shape outcomes. The investor emphasized that Aviva had streamlined into a “sharper business, ” and that momentum has helped its share-price performance.
Harvey Jones, who disclosed positions in Legal & General Group Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc, M&g Plc, and Phoenix Group Plc, reflected on choice and patience, noting the cyclical nature of investing and an intent to hold winners for years. “It was the better bet three years ago and may still have the edge, ” he wrote, while also explaining the decision to stick with his original purchase.
The numbers present a balanced, if unresolved, picture: Aviva’s stronger three-year capital return and still-attractive forward metrics versus a rival with a fatter income today but a lagging recent capital record.
Back in the SIPP, the moment of decision still holds its grip. The investor who paused three years ago can now see what might have been in Aviva’s rally, even as forward valuations and yields give a tempered rationale for fresh purchases. The question — whether to buy aviva now or wait for another cycle — remains a personal trade-off between income, valuation and time horizon.
