The upcoming primary will shape election results in Texas’ new 35th Congressional District, where 15 candidates are vying for an open seat in a district remapped to be more favorable to one party. Voters will decide nominees in crowded Democratic and Republican primaries on March 3, with the possibility of May runoffs if no candidate secures a majority. The contest centers on a newly drawn district that contains parts of San Antonio and outlying counties and has already shifted the political calculations for incumbents and challengers alike.
Background & Context: Why TX-35 matters now
The newly configured 35th covers portions of Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson and Karnes counties and now contains less than 10% of its former constituency. That redraw pushed the current representative, Democrat Greg Casar, out of the seat; he is running in the 37th District. Under the new lines, analysts estimate that the district would have favored Donald Trump by roughly 10 points in a recent presidential comparison, while a named published political report assigns congressional Republicans a four-point advantage. The map change and resulting partisan lean make the primary outcomes here strategically important for both parties.
Election Results: Deep analysis and what lies beneath the headline
Fifteen candidates have entered the race — 11 Republicans and four Democrats — creating a highly splintered field that raises the odds of runoffs in both parties. On the Republican side, the contest features multiple contenders with overlapping bases and varying records: state Rep. John Lujan; Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz; former congressional staffer Josh Cortez; Navy veteran Jay Furman; and entrepreneur Ryan Krause. The crowded Republican primary increases the chance that the nomination will be decided in a runoff if no candidate captures a majority on March 3, when polls are open from 7 a. m. to 7 p. m. ET.
Two structural elements dominate the deeper dynamics. First, the redrawn map altered the district’s partisan baseline: while a presidential benchmark suggests a roughly 10-point tilt in one direction, the named published political report’s narrower four-point projection signals a competitive environment if turnout and candidate appeal move beyond baseline assumptions. Second, demographic and behavioral change factors into strategies: Democrats view a leftward shift among Hispanic voters since Donald Trump took office as an opportunity to contest a Hispanic-majority district that was engineered to be more favorable for the GOP.
Strategic endorsements and personal networks are already shaping the contest. A high-profile external endorsement landed for Carlos De La Cruz on the eve of early voting, a move that has in past contests altered momentum. John Lujan’s campaign is premised on his name recognition from serving in an overlapping state House district, an advantage he is betting will blunt outside intervention. Those tactical variables — endorsements, veteran status, prior candidacies and overlapping constituencies — will play heavily into how the election results unfold, especially in a field where vote splitting is probable.
Expert perspectives and key players
Democrat Greg Casar, the district’s outgoing representative, is now focused on the 37th District after the new lines left him outside the reconfigured 35th. State Rep. John Lujan (state representative) is running on local familiarity in San Antonio. Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (Air Force veteran) received a high-profile endorsement just before early voting opened. Former Republican congressional staffer Josh Cortez (former Republican congressional staffer) and Navy veteran Jay Furman (Navy veteran) are viewed as among the competitive contenders, while entrepreneur Ryan Krause (entrepreneur) brings repeated primary experience from neighboring districts. On recent general-election performance, Navy veteran Jay Furman was the 2024 nominee in the 28th Congressional District and lost by about six points to Rep. Henry Cuellar (Representative, D-Laredo) — a result some campaigns cite when assessing turnout models.
The crowded field and the mix of military veterans, former staffers and elected officials create multiple pathways to victory. Candidates emphasize personal background, local ties or outside endorsements to distinguish themselves in early turnout and precinct-level outreach — both decisive factors when voters are limited to their specific precinct on Election Day.
Regional and national consequences
TX-35’s configuration has reverberations beyond a single House seat. If Republicans secure the nomination and then the general seat in a district that would have leaned toward one presidential candidate in a recent benchmark, it contributes to broader party strategies aimed at congressional gains. Conversely, Democrats believe that changing Hispanic voter attitudes and targeted organization could offset the engineered partisan tilt. The district’s competitive profile, the possibility of runoffs, and the high number of Republican contenders make election-day administration and turnout management especially consequential; small margins in primaries and runoffs can determine which candidates advance.
With ballots set to be cast on March 3, and potential runoffs in May, the path to final election results will be a multistage process that tests campaign infrastructure, voter engagement and the durability of endorsements in a fragmented field.
Will the crowded primaries and the new map produce a definitive mandate or prolong the contest into decisive runoffs that reshape the national calculus for the next Congress — and which permutation of candidates will ultimately convert early momentum into lasting electoral victory?
